building crane Igor Goloniov/ZumaPress

Racconto di due teorie

PARIGI – La crescita globale delude ancora. Un anno fa, il Fondo monetario internazionale prevedeva per il 2015 una crescita della produzione mondiale pari al 4%. Oggi, le stime dell’organizzazione parlano di un 3,3% per l’anno in corso, ovvero più o meno lo stesso livello registrato nel 2013 e 2014, e oltre un punto percentuale in meno rispetto alla media del periodo 2000-2007.   

La crescita dell’eurozona nell’ultimo trimestre ha lasciato alquanto indifferenti; il Giappone si è nuovamente addentrato in territorio negativo; il Brasile e la Russia sono in recessione; il commercio mondiale è in una fase di stallo; infine, il rallentamento dell’economia cinese e il conseguente turbamento dei mercati quest’estate hanno rafforzato il clima d’incertezza.  

Certo, qualche spiraglio positivo c’è: la performance dell’India, della Spagna e del Regno Unito sta superando le aspettative. La ripresa degli Stati Uniti appare solida, e anche l’Africa sta andando bene. In generale, però, è difficile negare che l’economia mondiale manchi di slancio.

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