building crane Igor Goloniov/ZumaPress

قصة نظريتين

باريس ــ مرة أخرى، جاء النمو العالمي مخيباً للآمال. فقبل عام واحد، توقع صندوق النقد الدولي ارتفاع الناتج العالمي بنحو 4% في عام 2015. والآن يتنبأ الصندوق بانخفاض النمو إلى 3.3% هذا العام ــ وهي نفس نسبة النمو في عام 2013 ثم في عام 2014، وأقل من المتوسط في الفترة 2000-2007 بما يزيد نقطة مئوية كاملة.

وفي منطقة اليورو، كان النمو في الربع الأخير أيضاً مخيباً للآمال. وعادت اليابان إلى المنطقة السلبية. والبرازيل وروسيا في ركود. كما تباطأت التجارة العالمية. وتسبب التباطؤ الاقتصادي في الصين والاضطرابات في الأسواق هذا الصيف في خلق المزيد من الشكوك.

صحيح أن هناك بعض النقاط المضيئة: فقد تجاوزت الهند وأسبانيا والمملكة المتحدة التوقعات. وكان التعافي في الولايات المتحدة متينا. وكان أداء أفريقيا على ما يرام. ولكن في مجمل الأمر، من الصعب أن ننكر أن الاقتصاد العالمي يفتقر إلى الزخم.

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