Sortir de la démocratie ?

Le Président George W. Bush et le Premier ministre Tony Blair ont tous deux besoin d'urgence d'une stratégie de retrait plausible pour quitter l'Irak. Il ne fait aucun doute qu'ils veulent retirer leurs armées du pays, maintenant que leurs raisons de partir en guerre se sont si effroyablement effondrées et que leur soutien national s'estompe. Mais aucun d'eux ne veut partir de manière méprisable, hélitreuillant de façon spectaculaire son dernier homme par hélicoptère, du toit d'une ambassade.

Bush et Blair veulent tout autant quitter l'Irak, si ce n'est victorieusement, avec un certain sens d'avoir " accompli leur mission ". D'après leurs récentes déclarations, le scénario qu'ils concoctent est simple. En janvier, des élections seront organisées en Irak. Le gouvernement qui en sortira demandera alors aux troupes d'occupation de se retirer dans l'année à venir, par exemple. Le retrait s'opèrerait alors dès le printemps prochain.

Si ce scénario paraît simple, la réalité ne l'est pas. La première question dérangeante est de savoir si les élections auront bien lieu en janvier prochain ? Le Premier ministre Iyad Allaoui assure à qui veut l'entendre que les élections seront organisées et le Président Bush appuie ses propos. Des observateurs plus neutres, ainsi que les bulletins d'information quotidienne sur les bombardements, les prises d'otages et les " insurgés ", font planer le doute sur ces perspectives.

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