撤离民主?

乔治·W·布什总统和托尼·布莱尔首相都需要从伊拉克撤军的看似可行的计划。毫无疑问,他们都想撤离,因为他们发动战争的理由已经戏剧性地化为乌有,国内的支持也早已不复存在。但他们又都不想带着耻辱离开,由直升飞机戏剧性地接走使馆屋顶上的最后一名官员。

布什和布莱尔都想离开伊拉克,即使无法戴着胜利的花环,至少也让人感到"完成了使命"。从两人最近的讲话看,他们着手导演的一幕再简单不过,一月份将在伊拉克举行大选。选举产生的政府跟着会要求占领军离开,比如以一年为限,然后第二年春天,撤军就会开始。

尽管设想再简单不过,但现实却极为复杂。令人心烦意乱的问题首先是:大选能否在明年一月如期举行?阿拉维总理信誓旦旦向全世界保证这不是问题,布什总统也一再附和。可立场更为中立的观察家-还有日复一日的爆炸、绑架以及"起义",都足以使人们对描绘中的前景提出置疑。

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