John Overmyer

Les désordres des taux de changes

NEW YORK – Deux caractéristiques troublantes de la reprise économique en cours sont d’une part un commerce international déprimé, et d’autre part, le retour des déséquilibres de la balance globale des paiements. Les estimations du Fond Monétaire International et des Nations Unies indiquent que le volume du commerce international en 2010 restera inférieur de 7 à 8 % au pic de 2008, tandis que de nombreux pays, pour ne pas dire la plupart, y compris les pays industrialisés, cherchent à dynamiser leur compte courant.

Si l’on s’en tient aux projections du FMI, le cumul des excédents de compte courant de l’économie mondiale devrait augmenter de près d’un trillion de dollars entre 2009 et 2012! Ce qui, bien sur, est impossible, puisque les excédents et les déficits doivent s’équilibrer pour l’ensemble de l’économie mondiale. Cela reflète simplement la force de récession (ou force déflationniste) que la faiblesse de la demande globale fait peser sur l’économie mondiale.

Dans ces conditions, une croissance des économies les plus importantes basée sur les exportations est une menace pour l’économie mondiale. Cela est vrai pour la Chine, l’Allemagne (comme le lui a rappelé à maintes reprises la ministre française de l’économie, Christine Lagarde), le Japon et les Etats-Unis.

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