John Overmyer

汇率乱象

纽约——

时下的经济复苏过程有两个令人担忧的特点:世界贸易本质上萧条不振,国际收支失衡又过早卷土重来。据国际货币基金组织和联合国估计,2010年国际贸易额仍将低于2008年峰值7%至8%,而许多或者说大多数国家,包括工业国家,正在努力提高他们的经常帐户。

事实上,如果我们相信国际货币基金组织的预测,那么20092012年之间世界经济的累积经常帐户盈余将增加近1万亿美元!这当然是不可能的,因为世界经济作为一个整体,其盈余和赤字必须处于平衡状态。这仅仅反映了笼罩在世界经济之上的疲软的全球需求所带来的衰退(或者通缩)压力。

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