World map drawn on brick wall.

Una mirada dura a la economía mundial blanda

MILÁN – La economía mundial se asienta en un surco de crecimiento lento, la llevó allí la falta de capacidad o voluntad que tienen los formuladores de políticas para abordar los principales obstáculos a nivel mundial. De hecho, es incluso probable que el anémico ritmo de crecimiento de hoy en día sea insostenible. La pregunta es si una evaluación honesta de los impedimentos que enfrenta el desempeño económico en todo el mundo espoleará a los formuladores de políticas para que entren en acción.

Desde el año 2008, el crecimiento real acumulado (ajustado por la inflación) en las economías desarrolladas llegó a un mero 5.6%. Durante el mismo periodo, el PIB de China se incrementó en un 70%, haciendo que este país sea el mayor contribuyente al crecimiento mundial; dicho incremento, a su vez, recibió la ayuda sustancial de las inversiones impulsadas por endeudamiento. Y, de manera palpable, a medida que este estímulo se desvanece, se hace cada vez más evidente el impacto sobre el crecimiento de China que tiene la insuficiencia de la demanda de los países avanzados.

El crecimiento está siendo socavado desde todos los flancos. El apalancamiento es cada vez mayor, y se tienen alrededor de $57 millones de millones apilados en todo el mundo desde que comenzó la crisis financiera mundial. Y, ese apalancamiento – en gran parte el resultado de la expansión monetaria en la mayoría de las economías avanzadas del mundo – ni siquiera cumple el objetivo de impulsar la demanda agregada a largo plazo. Después de todo, las políticas monetarias acomodaticias pueden, a lo sumo, simplemente ganar algo de tiempo con vistas a que a futuro surjan fuentes más duraderas de demanda.

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