World map drawn on brick wall.

Bisogna guardare con occhio critico la debole economia globale

MILANO – L’economia globale si sta adagiando sulla fase di rallentamento, trainata dall’incapacità o dalla non volontà dei politici di affrontare i grandi ostacoli a livello globale. Anche l’attuale passo anemico della crescita è insostenibile. La domanda è se valutare con onestà gli ostacoli alla performance economica in tutto il mondo possa spronare i politici all’azione.

Dal 2008 la crescita reale cumulativa (depurata dell’inflazione) nelle economie avanzate è a malapena pari al 5-6%. Se il pil della Cina è cresciuto del 70%, così apportando il maggiore contributo alla crescita globale, è sostanzialmente grazie agli investimenti alimentati dal debito. E una volta svaniti gli stimoli, l’impatto della domanda inadeguata dei paesi avanzati rispetto alla crescita cinese diventa sempre più apparente.

La crescita viene indebolita da tutti i lati. Il livello di indebitamento è in aumento, con i suoi 57mila miliardi di dollari accumulati in tutto il mondo dall’inizio della crisi finanziaria globale. E quel livello – di cui gran parte dovuto all’espansione monetaria attuata in molte economie avanzate del mondo – non serve neanche a incentivare la domanda aggregata a lungo termine. Le politiche monetarie accomodanti possono, alla meglio, prendere tempo affinché emergano fonti di domanda più durevoli.

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