World map drawn on brick wall.

Ein harter Blick auf eine weiche Weltwirtschaft

MAILAND – Das Wachstumstempo der weltweiten Wirtschaft hat sich auf einem zähflüssigen Niveau etabliert, was an der Unfähigkeit oder fehlenden Bereitschaft der Politiker liegt, auf globaler Ebene die größten Hindernisse zu beseitigen. Tatsächlich ist sogar das momentane kraftlose Wachstum wahrscheinlich nicht von Dauer. Die Frage ist, ob eine ehrliche Bestandsaufnahme der Hindernisse, die der Wirtschaftsleistung entgegen stehen, die Politiker zum Handeln bewegen kann.

Seit 2008 betrug das reale (inflationsbereinigte) kumulierte Wachstum in den Industriestaaten lediglich 5-6%. Zwar ist Chinas BIP um etwa 70% gestiegen, womit das Land den stärksten Beitrag zum weltweiten Wachstum geleistet hat, aber dieses Wachstum geht größtenteils auf schuldenfinanzierte Investitionen zurück. Und jetzt, da die Stimuli geringer werden, wird der Einfluss der schwachen Nachfrage aus den Industrieländern auf das chinesische Wachstum immer offensichtlicher.

Von allen Seiten her wird das Wachstum unterminiert. Die Verschuldung steigt. Seit Beginn der weltweiten Finanzkrise wurden weltweit etwa 57 Billionen Dollar Fremdkapital angehäuft. Und diese Verschuldung – die größtenteils das Ergebnis der geldpolitischen Expansion der Industriestaaten in aller Welt ist – dient noch nicht einmal dem Ziel der Steigerung der langfristigen Gesamtnachfrage. Eine flexible Geldpolitik kann bestenfalls Zeit schinden, bis dauerhaftere Nachfragequellen an ihre Stelle treten.

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