World map drawn on brick wall.

Un examen attentif d'une économie mondialisée au ralenti

MILAN – L'économie mondiale s'enlise dans une croissance lente, conduite par l'incapacité ou par la réticence des décideurs à s'attaquer aux obstacles majeurs à l'échelle mondiale. En effet, même le rythme anémique actuel de la croissance a de grandes chances d'être non viable. La question est de savoir si une évaluation honnête des obstacles à la performance économique dans le monde entier va pousser les décideurs à agir.

Depuis 2008, la croissance réelle cumulée (indexée sur l'inflation) dans les économies développées s'élevait en moyenne à seulement 5 à 6%. Pendant ce temps, le PIB de la Chine a augmenté d'environ 70%, ce qui en fait le plus grand contributeur à la croissance mondiale, aidé en grande partie par des investissements dans la dette. Et en effet, à mesure que ce stimulus diminue, l'impact de la demande insuffisante des pays avancés sur la croissance chinoise est de plus en plus manifeste.

La croissance est minée de toutes parts. L'effet de levier est en augmentation, avec quelques 57 mille milliards de dollars accumulés dans le monde depuis le début de la crise financière mondiale. Et cet effet de levier (qui résulte en grande partie de l'expansion monétaire dans la plupart des économies avancées du monde), ne poursuit même pas l'objectif de stimuler la demande globale à long terme. Après tout, les politiques monétaires accommodantes peuvent, au mieux, seulement gagner du temps avant l'émergence de sources plus durables de la demande.

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