World map drawn on brick wall.

对全球软经济的硬审视

米兰—全球经济正在滑向低速增长轨道,这是拜决策者无能或不愿在全球水平上解决主要障碍所赐。事实上,即使是当前低迷的增长速度,可能也是不可持续的。问题在于对全球经济表现障碍的诚实评估是否能刺激决策者行动起来。

2008年以来,发达经济体真实(经通胀调整的)累计增长只有5—6%。中国GDP增长了70%左右,是全球增长的最大贡献者,但在很大程度上受到债务助长的投资的推动。而事实上,随着这一刺激因素的消失,发达国家需求不足对中国增长的影响已经越来越明显。

增长正在受到腹背夹击。杠杆率正在上升,自全球金融危机爆发以来,全世界债务已高达57万亿美元。这一杠杆——大多是大部分发达经济体货币扩张的结果——甚至连提振长期总需求这一目标都没有达到。毕竟,有利的货币政策充其量只能为更加持久的需求源的出现赢得时间。

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