People at sunset

The Problem With Evidence-Based Policies

Many organizations, from government agencies to philanthropic institutions and aid organizations, now demand that programs and policies be “evidence-based.” But the way this idea is being implemented may be doing a lot of harm, impairing our ability to learn and improve on what we do.

CAMBRIDGE – Many organizations, from government agencies to philanthropic institutions and aid organizations, now require that programs and policies be “evidence-based.” It makes sense to demand that policies be based on evidence and that such evidence be as good as possible, within reasonable time and budgetary limits. But the way this approach is being implemented may be doing a lot of harm, impairing our ability to learn and improve on what we do.

The current so-called “gold standard” of what constitutes good evidence is the randomized control trial, or RCT, an idea that started in medicine two centuries ago, moved to agriculture, and became the rage in economics during the past two decades. Its popularity is based on the fact that it addresses key problems in statistical inference.

For example, rich people wear fancy clothes. Would distributing fancy clothes to poor people make them rich? This is a case where correlation (between clothes and wealth) does not imply causation.

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  1. abe10_TIZIANAFABIAFPGettyImages_shinzoabesmilingatcamera Tiziana Fabi/AFP/Getty Images

    The G20 in Osaka

    Shinzo Abe

    Japan is advocating a system of “Data Free Flow with Trust,” an approach that attempts to allow the free flow of data under rules upon which all people can rely. And launching DFFT is just one of four major agenda items that Japan's prime minister has in store for the group's upcoming summit.

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