People at sunset

基于证据的政策的问题

坎布里奇—从政府机构慈善组织和援助组织,如今许多组织要求计划和政策必须“基于证据”。要求政策基于证据,并且证据要尽可能优良,还要符合合理的时间和预算条件,这是有意义的。但是,这一方针的实施方法可能造成很多伤害,影响我们学习和改善我们的做法的能力。

目前的优良证据“黄金标准”是随机控制实验,即RCT。RCT的思想产生于两个世纪前的医学,然后应用到农业,过去二十年成为经济学的流行做法。其之所以如此普及,是基于一个事实:它解决了统计推断中的关键问题。

比如,富人衣锦。那么,让穷人也衣锦能让他们变富吗?在这个例子中,相关性(衣与富)并不构成因果关系。

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