People at sunset

المشكلة في السياسات المبنية على الأدلة

كمبريدج ــ في الوقت الحاضر، أصبحت منظمات عديدة، من الهيئات الحكومية إلى المؤسسات الخيرية ومنظمات الإغاثة، تشترط أن تكون البرامج والسياسات "مبنية على الأدلة". ومن المعقول أن نطالب بأن تكون السياسات مستندة على الأدلة وأن تكون هذه الأدلة جيدة قدر الإمكان، ضمن حدود زمنية وميزانية معقولة. بيد أن الطريقة المتبعة لتنفيذ هذا النهج ربما تتسبب في قدر كبير من الضرر، وتضعف قدرتنا على التعلم وتحسين ما نقوم به.

ويتمثل ما يسمى "المعيار الذهبي" الحالي لتحديد ما يشكل دليلاً جيداً في التجربة المنضبطة العشوائية (RCT)، وهي الفكرة التي بدأت في الطب قبل قرنين من الزمن، ثم انتقلت إلى الزراعة وأصبحت البدعة السائرة في الاقتصاد خلال العقدين الماضيين. وتستند شعبيتها على حقيقة مفادها أنها تعالج مشاكل رئيسية في الاستدلال الإحصائي.

على سبيل المثال، يرتدي الأثرياء ملابس فاخرة، فهل يتحول الفقراء إلى أثرياء إذا وزعنا عليهم ملابس فاخرة؟ في هذه الحالة لا يعني الارتباط (بين الملابس والثروة) وجود علاقة سببية.

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