实证经济

医药界发起行动,要求申请上市的新药必须经过“实证”。与此形成对比的是,受过正规训练的经济学家人们却认为他们的学科已经达到了这个科学水准。毕竟,他们用数学数据阐述观点,根据实验数据对大量不明确关系做出估算。

但是经济学家们在选择理论范式之时并没有抱着实证主义的态度。经济政策往往在应做的实验性预试没有完成时,就已经被制定好了。

一个有名的例子就是战后激进的凯恩斯学派领导下的宏观经济政策。激进派依赖于凯恩斯未经测试的理论,即失业率取决于“有效需求”,而非“货币工资”,但是他们的政策忽略了工资这个部分,并期望把需求稳定地保持在一个较高水平上以保证“充分”就业。

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