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Dinero para nada

BRUSELAS – El mundo desarrollado parece estar desplazándose hacia un entorno de interés cero a largo plazo. Si bien Estados Unidos, el Reino Unido, Japón y la eurozona han mantenido, ya durante varios años, en cero las tasas de interés fijadas según la política de sus bancos centrales, la percepción de que dicho nivel fuese una aberración temporal se tradujo en que a las tasas de mediano a largo plazo se mantuvieran sustanciales. Sin embargo, esta situación puede estar cambiando, especialmente en la eurozona.

En rigor de la verdad, las tasas cero se cumplen sólo para la deuda nominal y de mediano plazo, misma que se percibe como libre de riesgo. No obstante, a lo largo de la eurozona, las tasas están cerca a cero – y son negativas para una parte sustancial de la deuda pública – y, desde hace ya bastante tiempo atrás, se espera que dichas tasas permanezcan bajas.

En Alemania, por ejemplo, las tasas de interés de la deuda pública con un plazo de hasta cinco años serán negativas, y sólo ligeramente positivas si el plazo se extiende más allá, con lo que se produce un promedio ponderado de cero. Claramente, el entorno de tasas de interés cerca a cero del Japón ya no es único.

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