Good debt scrabble economy www.gotcredit.com/Flickr

De l’argent pour du vent

BRUXELLES – Le monde développé semble se diriger vers un taux d’intérêt nul à long terme. Même si les autorités monétaires des États-Unis, du Royaume-Uni, du Japon, et de la zone euro ont maintenu les taux directeurs à zéro depuis déjà plusieurs années, la perception que cette anomalie était provisoire se traduisait par des taux à moyen et long terme élevés. Tout cela risque pourtant de changer, surtout dans la zone euro.

Techniquement, les taux nuls n’ont été observés que pour les taux nominaux de la dette à moyen terme perçue comme dénuée de risque. Or, dans toute la zone euro, les taux sont presque nuls – même négatifs pour une portion non négligeable de la dette publique – et devraient demeurer bas pour un certain temps.

En Allemagne, par exemple, les taux d’intérêt seront négatifs sur les titres souverains à échéance de cinq ans ou moins et très légèrement positifs pour les échéances plus longues, ce qui donne une moyenne pondérée de zéro. De toute évidence, le cadre monétaire à taux d’intérêt presque nul n’est plus l’apanage du Japon.

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