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不用偿还的借贷

布鲁塞尔—发达世界似乎正在迎来长期零利率环境。尽管美国、英国、日本和欧元区维持央行政策利率为零已有多年,但仍有许多人感觉这只是暂时的反常现象,这意味着中期到长期利率仍然坚挺。但这可能发生改变,特别是在欧元区。

严格而言,零利率应该只存在于被认为无风险的中期债务的名义值。但是,纵观欧元区,利率无不接近于零——并且有相当大部分的政府债务为负——预计将在相当长时间里保持低水平。

比如,五年期德国公债利率将保持在负值,五年期以上公债也只是略高于零,加权平均则为零。显然,日本的近零利率环境已不再独特。

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