Good debt scrabble economy

مال بلا مقابل

بروكسل ــ يبدو أن العالم المتقدم يتحرك نحو بيئة تتسم بأسعار الفائدة التي لا تتجاوز الصِفر للأمد البعيد. ورغم أن الولايات المتحدة، والمملكة المتحدة، واليابان، ومنطقة اليورو أبقت أسعار فائدة بنوكها المركزية عند مستوى الصِفر لسنوات عديدة بالفعل، فإن التصور بأن هذا مجرد انحراف مؤقت كان يعني أن أسعار الفائدة المتوسطة إلى الطويلة الأجل ظلت مرتفعة. ولكن هذا ربما يتغير الآن، وخاصة في منطقة اليورو.

وبعبارة دقيقة، لا يُلتَزَم بأسعار الفائدة صِفر إلا مع الديون الاسمية المتوسطة الأجل التي ينظر إليها على أنها بلا مجازفة. ولكن في مختلف أنحاء منطقة اليورو، كانت أسعار الفائدة قريبة من الصِفر ــ وسلبية على قسم كبير من الدين الحكومي ــ ومن المتوقع أن تظل منخفضة لبعض الوقت.

ففي ألمانيا على سبيل المثال، سوف تكون أسعار الفائدة سلبية على الديون العامة لمدة خمس سنوات، وإيجابية بشكل طفيف فقط في ما عدا ذلك، الأمر الذي يسفر في النهاية عن المتوسط المرجح صِفر. ومن الواضح أن بيئة أسعار الفائدة القريبة من الصِفر في اليابان لم تعد فريدة.

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