Daniel Roland/AFP/Getty Images

Die Eurozone ist weiterhin verwundbar

BRÜSSEL – Obwohl die Eurozone in letzter Zeit insgesamt einen konjunkturellen Aufwärtstrend erfährt, ist sich nicht gegen das Risiko einer weiteren Krise gefeit und die  Lage ist weiterhin fragil. Ein wesentlicher Grund ist die weiterhin bestehende Anfälligkeit für asymmetrische Boom-und-Bust-Zyklen.

Einfach ausgedrückt: Während in guten Zeiten alle Länder der Eurozone profitieren können, leiden einige deutlich stärker als andere, wenn es plötzlich steil bergab geht. Das bedeutet, dass sicherheitsbewusste Investoren sobald die nächste Krise einsetzt aus finanzschwachen in finanzstarke Länder fliehen, die im Hinblick auf das Wirtschaftswachstum Erfolge vorzuweisen haben.

Wenn sich das ökonomische Kalkül umkehrt, ist mit einem Déjà-vu-Erlebnis zu rechnen. Der Gewinn des einen Landes wird mit Verlusten für ein anderes Land einhergehen, und das wird die Zusammenarbeit innerhalb der Eurozone schwächen und politische Spannungen schüren. Die Folgen werden sich wahrscheinlich auf die Innenpolitik aller Länder auswirken und Kräfte stärken, die eine Desintegration befürworten.

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