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欧元区仍然脆弱

布鲁塞尔—尽管最近总体经济呈现好转之势,欧元区仍然十分脆弱,远远没有摆脱另一场危机的风险。一个主要原因是它仍然极易发生不对称的枯荣循环。

简言之,所有欧元区成员国都能从景气时期获益,但一些国家在萧条期所受到的伤害要远大于其他国家。这意味着,只要下一次危机爆发,注重安全的投资者将逃离财政疲软的国家,涌向财政坚挺、有着良好的经济增长纪录的国家。

当经济考虑逆转时,预计我们将体验到一种似曾相识的感觉。一国的收益意味着另一个国家的损失,这将危害到泛欧元区合作,助长政治紧张。其影响可能波及每个国家的国内政策,增强支持解体的力量。

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