Economics

不平等是如何推动欧元危机的

Apr 9, 2018 Benedicta Marzinotto

发自布鲁塞尔——自2007~09年大衰退以来，大多数经济学家都开始将金融视为商业周期的关键驱动力，但对这一动力究竟如何运作方面还是缺乏全面的了解。

例如芝加哥大学的阿米尔·苏菲（Amir Sufi）和普林斯顿大学的阿提夫·米安安（Atif Mian）认为信贷扩张会导致严重的经济衰退，因为一旦大量家庭不论出于何种原因而无法获得所需的融资来偿还债务，衰退就会席卷而来。但是这个论点忽略了一个关键因素，而欧元区危机则可以说明这一点。

欧元的创建伴随着大规模的金融自由化，包括取消资本管制并采用一个新的法律框架以允许任何欧洲银行在海外设立分支机构。这一过程导致银行业竞争加剧，私营银行相对于公营银行的比例逐渐增加。

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The Real Engine of the Business Cycle
MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images

Economics 17

The Real Engine of the Business Cycle

Amir Sufi & Atif Mian
A valuable lesson from the Great Recession is that credit-supply expansions play a key role in subsequent recessions. When lenders make credit more available or more affordable, households respond by taking on debt, which drives up aggregate demand – that is, until the music stops.
explain how increases in household debt have played a direct role in decades of booms and busts.

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Henk Crop Apr 16, 2018

Your conclusion is correct. But I would put it differently. You cannot have a sustainable common currency between economies that are very different.
Before the Euro was introduced the Netherlands kept a fixed exchange rate with the German mark. But other countries were not able to do so. The Belgians, French and Italians, for example, frequently devaluated their currency.
When East Germany joined West Germany, the West Germans had to pay 2 Trillion Euro's for 16,6 million East Germans between 1990 -2014.
So, a Banking Union with the Euro cannot mean anything else than a massive transfer of money for a very very long period of time. Who is willing to pay for it ?
- Henk Crop Apr 17, 2018
  
  Another important question is would an economy develop itself if you just send money ?
  There is ample experience that it does not work. You need enterpreneurs, business opportunities, favorable government conditions and only then money.
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