La eurozona necesita algo más que QE

CAMBRIDGE – Si bien el Banco Central Europeo lanzó un programa mucho mayor de lo esperado de alivio cuantitativo (QE), hasta sus defensores temen que tal vez no baste para impulsar las economías reales, reducir el desempleo y bajar los ratios deuda-PIB de los gobiernos. Tienen razón de tener miedo.

Pero primero las buenas noticias: la expectativa del QE ya aceleró la caída del valor internacional del euro. El euro más débil estimulará las exportaciones de los países de la eurozona -aproximadamente la mitad de las cuales van a mercados externos- y, por ende, aumentará el PIB de la eurozona. La depreciación del euro también hará aumentar los precios de las importaciones y, en consecuencia, la tasa general de inflación, alejando a la eurozona un poco más de la deflación.

Desafortunadamente, tal vez no sea suficiente. El éxito del QE en Estados Unidos reflejó condiciones iniciales que eran muy diferentes de las que ahora vemos en Europa. De hecho, los países de la eurozona no deberían sesgar en sus esfuerzos de implementar reformas suponiendo que las compras de bonos del BCE resolverán sus problemas. Pero aun si estos países no pueden superar las barreras políticas a la implementación de cambios estructurales en los mercados laborales y de productos que sirvan para mejorar la productividad y la competitividad, sí pueden implementar políticas capaces de aumentar la demanda agregada.

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