Еврозоне нужно больше, чем количественное смягчение

КЭМБРИДЖ – Хотя Европейский Центральный Банк запустил по размерам более значительную программу количественного смягчения (Quantitative Easing - QE), чем ожидалось, даже его сторонники опасаются, что этого может быть не достаточно для того, чтобы повысить реальные доходы, снизить уровень безработицы, и уменьшить соответствие долга к ВВП у правительств. Опасаться стоит.

Но сначала хорошие новости: ожидание программы QE уже ускорило падение международного курса евро. Более слабое евро будет стимулировать экспорт в странах еврозоны - примерно половина из которых выходят на внешние рынки - и, таким образом, будет повышать ВВП еврозоны. Понижение курса евро также будет повышать цены на импорт и, следовательно, общий уровень инфляции, отстраняя еврозону дальше от дефляции.

К сожалению, этого может быть недостаточно. Успех QE в США отражал их начальные условия, которые очень отличались от тех, которые преобладают сейчас в Европе. Действительно, страны еврозоны не должны ослаблять их усилия по проведению реформ под предлогом того, что покупки облигаций со стороны ЕЦБ решат их проблемы. Но даже если эти страны не смогут преодолеть политические барьеры на пути к осуществлению структурных изменений в трудовом и товарном рынке, которые могут улучшить производительность и конкурентоспособность, они могут проводить политику, которая может увеличить совокупный спрос.

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