Die Eurozone braucht mehr als eine quantitative Lockerung

CAMBRIDGE – Obwohl die Europäische Zentralbank ein unerwartet großes Programm der quantitativen Lockerung eingeleitet hat, fürchten selbst dessen Befürworter, dass dies nicht ausreichen könnte, um die Realeinkommen zu erhöhen, die Arbeitslosigkeit zu senken und die staatlichen Schuldenquoten zu verringern. Diese Angst ist berechtigt.

Doch zunächst die gute Nachricht: Die Erwartung der quantitativen Lockerung hat den Rückgang des internationalen Werts des Euros bereits beschleunigt. Der schwächere Euro wird in den Euroländern den Export ankurbeln – der etwa zur Hälfte in externe Märkte geht – und damit das BIP der Eurozone erhöhen. Die Abwertung des Euro wird zudem die Importpreise und damit die Inflationsrate insgesamt erhöhen und so die Eurozone weiter von einer Deflation wegführen.

Unglücklicherweise könnte dies nicht ausreichen. Der Erfolg der quantitativen Lockerung in den USA spiegelte eine Ausgangslage wider, die sich von der im heutigen Europa deutlich unterschied. Die Euroländer dürfen nicht im Vertrauen darauf, dass die Anleihekäufe der EZB ihre Probleme lösen werden, in ihren Reformanstrengungen nachlassen. Doch selbst wenn diese Länder es nicht schaffen, die politischen Hürden für die Umsetzung von Strukturreformen auf den Arbeits- und Produktmärkten, die Produktivität und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit steigern könnten, zu überwinden, können sie eine Politik umsetzen, die die Gesamtnachfrage anregt.

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