g20 summit Chris McGrath | getty images

Vorbereitungen für die nächste Rezession in Europa

PARIS – Wenn Sie nicht verstehen, was in der Ökonomie der Eurozone gerade vor sich geht, sind Sie nicht allein. An einem Tag wird uns erzählt, dass es mit dem Wachstum definitiv vorbei ist, am nächsten Tag heißt es die Erholung verläuft wie geplant und am dritten Tag hören wir, dass die Europäische Zentralbank darüber nachdenkt, allen Bürgern Geldschecks zukommen zu lassen, um so die Produktion anzukurbeln und die Inflation zu erhöhen. Selten war die wirtschaftliche Lage so unübersichtlich.

Beginnen wir mit dem mittelfristigen Wachstum. Seit dem Ausbruch der weltweiten Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008 stieg die Produktivität im Schneckentempo. Merkwürdigerweise scheinen auch die magischen Rechenleistungen der Smartphones den Rückgang der Effizienzgewinne in den Bereichen Produktion und Standard-Dienstleistungen nicht wettzumachen. Seit fast einem Jahrzehnt liegt das jährliche Produktivitätswachstum in den Industrieländern nun bei nahe 1 Prozent, verglichen mit 2 Prozent in der Zeit davor.

Dabei könnte es sich um eine vorübergehende Flaute oder eine statistische Täuschung handeln. Doch angesichts fehlender Belege für ein Ende dieser Entwicklung haben die politischen Entscheidungsträger ihre Prognosen gesenkt. Seit 2010 hat das Haushaltsbüro des Kongresses in den USA seinen Ausblick für das Produktivitätswachstum im Jahrzehnt bis 2020 von 25 auf 16 Prozent gesenkt. Auch das britische Büro für Budgetverantwortung setzte seine entsprechenden Prognosen von 22 auf 14 Prozent herab. Alles stellt sich also auf magerere Zeiten ein.   

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