Economics

Přípravy na příští recesi v Evropě

Mar 31, 2016 Jean Pisani-Ferry

PAŘÍŽ – Nerozumíte-li tomu, co se děje s ekonomikou eurozóny, pak nejste sami. Jeden den se dozvídáme, že růst je definitivně tentam, druhý den přichází zotavení a třetí den Evropská centrální banka zvažuje, že rozešle všem občanům šeky, aby povzbudila výkonnost a oživila inflaci. Obraz ekonomické situace bývá málokdy tak matoucí.

Začněme střednědobým růstem. Od vypuknutí globální finanční krize v roce 2008 roste produktivita hlemýždím tempem. Ani magický výpočetní výkon chytrých telefonů kupodivu nedokáže vykompenzovat zpomalení přírůstků efektivity ve výrobě a standardních službách. Už téměř deset let se roční růst produktivity v rozvinutých ekonomikách blíží 1%, oproti dřívějším 2%.

Může jít o dočasnou přestávku nebo statistickou iluzi. Protože však neexistují důkazy, že toto období skončí, zmírnili tvůrci hospodářské politiky své předpovědi. Americký Kongresový rozpočtový úřad snížil od roku 2010 svou vyhlídku růstu produktivity v dekádě končící rokem 2020 z 25% na 16% a také britský Úřad pro rozpočtovou zodpovědnost upravil svou předpověď růstu produktivity z 22% na 14%. Všichni se adaptují na hubenější časy.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

Luis Fernandez Apr 7, 2016

Dou you really believe that starving populations in deflationary scenarios will be deterred by some articles in some legal text? A hundred years ago it was a German Chancellor who was talking about a "scrap of paper" his country would not honour. Germany now only has one stimulus for abandoning her comfort zone: to be confronted with the breakdown of the Ezone. She wants the commercial advantages, but not the macroeconomic engagement. It is is even worst than UK stance, because Germany also wants to control a common currency, thus mastering both fiscal and monetary policies throughout the continent. We won't accept that. The sooner you realize the situation, the better we can find a sound and equitable Ezone macroeconomic policy. Think a little about your alternatives to the Ezone, please. I will be surprised to hear Germans prefer an overvalued Mark in the present 'currency wars'. But human being is very irrational and that would be the case after all!
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Peter Schneider Apr 4, 2016

The propositions reported by the author are all in violation of TFEU art. 123 or 125 and thus illegal. They all aim at converting the monetary union into a debt and liability union which is most explicitely excluded by the Maastricht treaty.
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M M Apr 3, 2016

Trump admitted it yesterday. The US unemployment data is very much understated and so is the EU unemployment data. The US could be heading for its worse recession next year; the EU is already in a deflationary spiral. Until the current political / financial leadership decide to wake up and face up to the reality that he “Status Quo” is not sustainable, the future is looking very grim, very grim indeed.
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Steve Hurst Mar 31, 2016

'... “all central banks” can print money and send checks to each and every citizen – a last-resort option known as “helicopter money.” Because households would spend part of the windfall, a helicopter drop would boost both domestic demand and the price level...'

ZIRP has had this effect for most of the population as it has reduced costs, ZIRP has been detrimental to savers who predominately older but this group tend not to spend anyway. I cannot see why helicopter money should do anything different than ZIRP. NIRP has exposed the lower boundary so ZIRP is active

'The ECB can exhort or incentivize, but it is governments that must act.'

Guvnts are apparently incapable of acting. You would think yout unemployment rates of 25%, 50% or more would provoke action, but no. What was it Junckers said during the Grexit fiasco - something about everybody knowing what to do but not knowing how to get elected afterwards. Says it all
- Jose araujo Apr 4, 2016
  
  Helipcopter money is fundamentally different from ZIRP when in conditions of generalized risk aversion. Actually, IMHO, ZIRP can occur exist with risk aversion.
  
  Fundamental risk aversion makes the LM curve horizontal, breaking the ling between money and real markets, and that's why QE isn't working.
  
  By bypassing the financial system, Helicopter money would help fixing the links between markets. Consumption would pick up from the money given leading to more investment.
  
  On the other hand, monetary expansion works like a punishment to all that hold money, so in practice, helicopter money is like taking money away from the ones that are refusing to put it to good use, and place that money in the hands of agents that would make use of it, either through consumption or investment.
  
  IMHO, there are better ways then Helicopter money, and Draghi is aware of them, but without any government intervention, that's what the ECB can do. First to try to move expectations through the announcement of those measures, and if expectations don't work, start doing it.
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Jose araujo Mar 31, 2016

European economic thinking is infected with all the worst bugs and diseases we can imagine.

From Hayeks and Austrian, and its Alesina + Sudden Stop declination, that dominate Europe, to mercatilism - free trade -laissez faire, has a growth strategy, Fayol and Fordism views on work, to the Ricardian subsistance level/structural reforms/ wage stickiness has the culprit of all.

Fortunatly Draghi and the ECB are one of the few that make sense, but with the media and political parties dominated with this orthodoxy, what can we expect.
- Jose araujo Apr 4, 2016
  
  @Steve
  
  I agree with you in the fundamentals, only disagree on the "unavoidable" times of low consumption.
  
  I don't see why older people would consume less, they change consumer patterns, but why would it be lower?
  
  Consumption IMHO is determined by the income level, so yes older people have less income, but on the other hand they also save less.
  
  We consume less because we have lower income, not because there is a change in our behavior or because we are all good.
  
  99% of the population would consume more if they had more money, why wouldn't we? We all want yatches, and beach houses, and a dedicated nurse when we are old. We all want to eat at michellin restaurants, and have private chefs in our houses.
  
  IMHO, lower consumption is related with lower income and a trend for the accumulation of wealth on th 0,1% of the population that in effect have no needs to fulfill.
  
  We are so far away from the limits of technical production that an aging population is no problem at all. The limits on productivity move so fast that having to satisfy all needs will less labor is no issue.
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- Steve Hurst Apr 1, 2016
  
  @Jose
  
  If you have a demographic with an old age bulge then consumption will drop because that age group are not enthusiastic consumers, that means overall the entire population consumption will drop as an average
  
  However this older age group also demand higher welfare provision increasing the load on tax revenues
  
  If you have 12%, 25%, 50% 60% youth unemployment depending on location then consumption by that group will drop. That means consumption over the entire population will further drop
  
  If economic activity is reduced by offshoring due to labour costs then consumption will drop, again reducing consumption
  
  This is all happening in a consumer economy. Its not rocket science
  
  To return to the golden age the multiplier effect on spending taxpayers money has to be quite remarkable and quite frankly I do not believe guvnt spending will give the required uplift on its own
  
  I dont think the situation is at all as c0nfusing as J P-F claims. The unfortunate thing is political action is needed and that has stalled. In essence the need is realocation of wealth and opportunity and that is opposed by those holding wealth and opportunity advantage who hold ballot box influence
  
  These dynamics are so deep seated and the expectations of certain groups are also so deep seated that the whole situation has become frozen. In essence this a political problem which is why economics is not much of an answer. It is also why the ECB keep throwing money into the machine and saying central banks cannot solve it
  
  Throwing money into the machine simply maintains the wealth and opportunity imbalance
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Jose araujo Mar 31, 2016

"Austerity is not the culprit. Whereas premature consolidation of public budgets was largely responsible for causing a double-dip recession five years ago, fiscal policy has been broadly neutral since 2015."

Was there a relieve in fiscal conditions? So if taxes increased and didn't decreased since, how is this neutral?

If budgets decreased and never increased....
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