g20 summit Chris McGrath | getty images

准备好欧洲下一场衰退

巴黎—如果你不理解欧元区经济正在发生什么,那么你不是一个人。某日,我们被告知增长显然已是明日黄花;翌日,消息又说复苏已在路上;而第三日又说欧洲央行正在考虑给所有公民发支票提振产出、重振通胀。经济情况从未如此令人混淆。

从中期增长开始。自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,生产率增长已陷入龟速。奇怪的是,智能手机的魔幻计算力似乎并未抵消制造业和标准服务效率增长的放缓。近十年来,发达经济体生产率年增长率接近1%,而此前为2%。

这可能只是暂时的平静,或者是数字幻觉。但没有证据表明它会结束,因刺激决策者降低了预期。2010年以来,美国国会预算办公室将截至2020年的十年生产率增长展望从25%降到16%;英国预算责任办公室亦然,将其生产率增长预期从22%降到14%。所有人都在为坏光景作调整。

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