g20 summit Chris McGrath | getty images

إعداد العُدة للركود التالي في أوروبا

باريس ــ إن كنت لا تفهم ماذا يحدث في منطقة اليورو، فأنت لست وحدك في هذا. فذات يوم يُقال لنا إن النمو قد أتى بالفعل؛ وفي اليوم التالي يُقال لنا إن التعافي يسير على الطريق الصحيح؛ وفي اليوم الثالث يُقال لنا إن البنك المركزي الأوروبي يدرس إرسال شيكات لكل المواطنين لتعزيز الناتج وإحياء التضخم. ونادرا ما كانت الصورة الاقتصادية بهذا القدر من الإرباك.

ولنبدأ هنا بالنمو في الأمد المتوسط. منذ اندلاع الأزمة المالية العالمية عام 2008، كان نمو الإنتاجية شديد البطء. والغريب في الأمر أن القدرة الحاسوبية السحرية التي تتمتع بها الهواتف الذكية لا يبدو أنها نجحت في التعويض عن التباطؤ في مكاسب الكفاءة في الصناعات التحويلية والخدمات النمطية المعتادة. فعلى مدار عشر سنوات تقريبا، كان نمو الإنتاجية السنوي في الاقتصادات المتقدمة أقرب إلى 1% في مقابل 2% سابقا.

وقد يكون هذا سكونا مؤقتا أو وهما إحصائيا. ولكن في غياب أي دليل يشير إلى أن هذا قد ينتهي، ذهب صناع السياسات إلى خفض توقعاتهم. فمنذ عام 2010، خفض مكتب الميزانية في الكونجرس الأميركي توقعاته في ما يتصل بنمو الإنتاجية في العقد الذي ينتهي بحلول عام 2020 من 25% إلى 16%؛ وكذلك فعل مكتب مسؤولية الموازنة في المملكة المتحدة، فخفض توقعات نمو الإنتاجية من 22% إلى 14%. والآن يسعى الجميع إلى التكيف مع أوقات أعجف.

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