Euro Notes Jim Dyson/Getty Images

Levar a sério o crescimento na zona euro

LONDRES – Tenho estado afastado do mundo da finança internacional e da previsão económica há mais de quatro anos, mas muito do que aprendi durante os meus 30 anos de trabalho a tempo inteiro nesse campo ainda influencia o modo como vejo o mundo. Uma lição consistia em medir o desempenho económico e financeiro de uma entidade, comparando-o simultaneamente com o potencial subjacente da entidade e a valorização do seu desempenho pelo mercado. A aplicação desta abordagem às principais economias origina algumas observações e possibilidades surpreendentes.

Para começar, contrariamente ao que muitos pensam, o crescimento mundial não foi especialmente desanimador nos anos desta década. Entre 2010 e 2016, a produção global cresceu a uma taxa anual média de 3,4%, de acordo com o Fundo Monetário Internacional. Esse valor pode ser inferior à média do período 2000-2010, mas é superior à taxa de crescimento das décadas de 1980 e 1990, que não são normalmente encaradas como desanimadoras do ponto de vista económico.

A discriminação do desempenho por países específicos permite uma compreensão mais aprofundada. Apesar de traumas políticos significativos, o desempenho dos Estados Unidos e do Reino Unido não se afastou do esperado. A China, a Índia e o Japão também se aproximaram do seu potencial. O que aconteceu de raro foi nenhuma economia importante ter superado drasticamente o seu potencial.

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