Euro Notes Jim Dyson/Getty Images

Prendre au sérieux la croissance de la zone euro

LONDRES – J'ai quitté le monde de la finance internationale et de la prévision économique depuis plus de quatre ans. Pourtant une grande partie de ce que j'ai appris au cours de mes 30 années de travail à temps plein dans ce domaine influence encore ma manière de percevoir le monde. Une leçon a été de mesurer la performance économique et financière en la comparant à la fois au potentiel sous-jacent de l'entité et à la valorisation de ses performances sur le marché. L'application de cette approche aux principales économies donne lieu à des observations et à des possibilités étonnantes.

Tout d'abord, contrairement à la croyance populaire, la croissance mondiale n'a pas été particulièrement décevante jusqu'à présent durant cette décennie. De 2010 à 2016, la production mondiale a augmenté à un taux annuel moyen de 3,4 %, selon le Fonds Monétaire International. Cela est peut-être inférieur à la moyenne des années 2000-2010, mais supérieur au taux de croissance dans les années 1980 et 1990 : des décennies que l'on ne tient généralement pas pour décevantes d'un point de vue économique.

Une ventilation selon les performances de certains pays fait apparaître d'autres perspectives. En dépit d'importants traumatismes politiques, les États-Unis et le Royaume-Uni ont fourni les résultats attendus. La Chine, l'Inde et le Japon ont également eu une croissance proche de leur potentiel. Aucune économie majeure n'a considérablement dépassé son potentiel, ce qui est assez rare.

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