Euro Notes Jim Dyson/Getty Images

De eurozone zou best weer kunnen gaan groeien

LONDEN – Ik ben inmiddels ruim vier jaar weg uit de wereld van de internationale financiële en economische voorspellingen, maar veel van wat ik heb geleerd in de dertig jaar dat ik me daar fulltime mee bezighield beïnvloedt nog steeds mijn kijk op de wereld. Eén les die ik mijn ervaringen heb getrokken houdt in dat je de economische en financiële prestaties van een entiteit moet beoordelen door te bekijken hoe die zich verhouden tot het onderliggende potentieel en de waardering van die prestaties door de markt. Als we deze benadering toepassen op de grote economieën komen we tot een paar verrassende inzichten – en mogelijkheden.

Om te beginnen is de mondiale groei dit decennium – in tegenstelling tot wat de meeste mensen denken – tot nu toe niet bijzonder teleurstellend geweest. Van 2010 tot 2016 steeeg de mondiale productie met een gemiddeld jaarlijks groeicijfer van 3,4%, aldus het Internationale Monetaire Fonds. Dat is misschien lager dan het gemiddelde tussen 2000 en 2010, maar hoger dan het groeicijfer in de jaren tachtig en negentig – decennia die doorgaans niet worden beschouwd als economisch teleurstellend.

Een specificatie van de prestaties van individuele landen biedt verdere inzichten. Ondanks aanzienlijke politieke problemen hebben de Verenigde Staten en Groot-Brittannië naar verwachting gepresteerd. China, India en Japan zijn qua groei ook dichtbij hun potentieel uitgekomen. Bij wijze van zeldzaamheid heeft geen enkele grote economie haar potentieel dramatisch overtroffen.

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