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认真对待欧元区增长

伦敦—我已经有四年多没有关注国际金融和经济预测了,但在我在这一领域全职工作的30多年里所学到的经验仍在影响我看待世界的方式。一个经验是,衡量一个实体的经济和金融表现,可以通过将其与该实体的基本潜力和市场对它的表现的估值来进行。将这一方法应用到主要经济体中,就能发现一些令人惊奇的观察,以及可能。

首先,与流行的信念相反,世界增长在这个十年并不令人特别失望。据国际货币基金组织(IMF),从2010年到2016年,全球产出增长平均年率为3.4%。这或许要低于2000—2010年间的平均水平,但仍比20世纪80和90年代的增长率要高——而这二十年通常并不认为属于经济令人失望的年代。

分解某些国家的表现能提供更进一步的洞见。尽管受到了巨大的政治冲击,但美国和英国表现仍达到了预期。中国、印度和日本的增长也接近潜在水平。比较罕见的是没有一个主要经济体表现大幅超过潜在水平。

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