Old man on bike Jarod Carruthers/Flickr

Piccoli passi verso la crescita europea

PARIGI – Al convegno annuale organizzato dalla Banca centrale europea a Sintra, in Portogallo, alla fine di maggio, non si è parlato tanto di deflazione, quantitative easing o stabilità finanziaria, quanto di disoccupazione, produttività e riforme che favoriscono la crescita. Il presidente della Bce Mario Draghi ha spiegato le ragioni di questa scelta nel suo discorso introduttivo: l’eurozona ha bisogno di una spinta di crescita e di essere più resistente agli shock.

Draghi ha senz’altro ragione. Secondo le previsioni della Commissione europea, l’eurozona registrerà una crescita dell’1,5% nel 2015 e dell’1,9% nel 2016, un risultato sicuramente positivo rispetto alla quasi stagnazione degli ultimi anni. Se, però, si tiene conto del massiccio sostegno monetario, della politica di bilancio ora neutrale, della drastica diminuzione dei prezzi del petrolio e del deprezzamento dell’euro, questo incremento è il minimo che ci si potesse aspettare, e fra l’altro servirà solo a riportare il Pil pro capite ai livelli del 2008. Il fatto che leader ed esperti salutino con entusiasmo questa lieve schiarita indica quanto le nostre aspettative si siano ridimensionate.

Fino a poco tempo fa, la colpa della cattiva performance economica poteva essere attribuita alla politica di austerità fiscale e alla crisi dell’euro. Ora non più. Anche se la crescita potrebbe superare le previsioni della Commissione, il potenziale di crescita dell’eurozona resta motivo di preoccupazione.

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