Old man on bike Jarod Carruthers/Flickr

Kleine Schritte in Richtung Wachstum in Europa

PARIS – Auf der von der Europäischen Zentralbank ausgewählten Tagesordnung für ihr jährliches Forum im portugiesischen Sintra, das Ende Mai stattfand, standen diesmal nicht die Themen Deflation, quantitative Lockerung oder Finanzstabilität, sondern Arbeitslosigkeit, Produktivität und wachstumsfördernde Reformen.  Die Gründe dafür erläuterte EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi in seiner Eröffnungsrede: Der Eurozone fehle es sowohl an Wachstumsdynamik als auch an Widerstandskraft gegenüber negativen Schocks.

Draghi hat zweifellos recht. Die Europäische Kommission rechnet derzeit mit einem Wirtschaftswachstum von 1,5 Prozent für das Jahr 2015 und von 1,9 Prozent für 2016. Im Vergleich zur Beinahe-Stagnation der letzten Jahre nehmen sich diese Werte fraglos gut aus. Doch in Anbetracht der Kombination aus massiver geldpolitischer Unterstützung, eines mittlerweile neutralen finanzpolitischen Kurses, einem dramatischen Ölpreisverfall und einem abgewerteten Euro ist das wohl das Mindeste, was man erwarten durfte. Auch das Pro-Kopf-BIP wird man damit wieder auf Werte wie vor dem Jahr 2008 bringen.  Die Tatsache, dass führende Politiker und Experten diese freundlicheren Aussichten so begeistert begrüßen, ist ein Hinweis darauf, wie weit wir unsere Erwartungen schon zurückgeschraubt haben.

Bis vor kurzem konnte man Sparprogramme und Eurokrise für die schlechte Wirtschaftsleistung verantwortlich machen. Das geht nun nicht mehr. Obwohl das Wachstum die Prognose der Kommission übertreffen könnte, bestehen durchaus Gründe zur Sorge hinsichtlich des Wachstumspotenzials der Eurozone.

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