Old man on bike Jarod Carruthers/Flickr

Krůčky k evropskému růstu

PAŘÍŽ – Mezi tématy, která Evropská centrální banka zvolila pro své výroční fórum v portugalské Sintře na konci května, nefigurovaly deflace, kvantitativní uvolňování ani finanční stabilita. Nahradily je nezaměstnanost, produktivita a prorůstové reformy. Prezident ECG Mario Draghi vysvětlil důvody ve svém úvodním projevu: eurozóna postrádá dynamiku i odolnost vůči nepříznivým šokům.

Draghi má nepochybně pravdu. Evropská komise dnes očekává, že růst v eurozóně dosáhne letos 1,5% a v příštím roce 1,9%. V porovnání s téměř stagnací v posledních letech to rozhodně vypadá dobře. Vzhledem ke kombinaci masivní měnové podpory, dnes již neutrálního fiskálního postoje, strmého pádu cen ropy a znehodnoceného eura je to však minimum toho, co jsme mohli očekávat, a HDP na obyvatele se tím pouze vrátí na úroveň roku 2008. Skutečnost, že političtí představitelé i experti tuto světlejší vyhlídku oslavují, jen ukazuje, jak výrazně se naše očekávání snížila.

Donedávna se dal špatný výkon ekonomiky přičítat fiskálním úsporným opatřením a krizi eura. Dnes už to neplatí. Růst sice překonává prognózu Evropské komise, avšak existují důvody, proč mít o růstový potenciál eurozóny obavy.

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