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Lebenszeichen in der Eurozone

NEW YORK – Die jüngsten Wirtschaftsdaten aus der Eurozone legen nahe, dass eine Erholung bevorstehen könnte. Was treibt den Aufschwung an? Welche Hindernisse stehen ihm im Weg? Und was lässt sich tun, um den Aufschwung nachhaltig zu machen?

Die unmittelbaren Ursachen der Erholung sind unschwer auszumachen. Im vergangenen Jahr stand die Eurozone am Rande einer W-förmigen Rezession (Double-Dip). Als sie kürzlich in eine technische Deflation geriet, machte die Europäische Zentralbank endlich ernst mit einer aggressiven Lockerung ihrer Geldpolitik und leitete eine Kombination aus quantitativer Lockerung (einschließlich des Ankaufs von Staatsanleihen) und negativen Leitzinsen ein.

Dies zeigte unmittelbare Wirkung an den Finanzmärkten: In Erwartung der Lockerung der Geldpolitik und nachdem diese eingeleitet wurde fiel der Euro steil; die Anleiherenditen im Kern, aber auch in der Peripherie der Eurozone sanken auf neue Tiefststände, und an den Aktienmärkten begann ein robuster Kursanstieg. Dies gemeinsam mit dem steilen Rückgang der Ölpreise gab dem Wirtschaftswachstum einen Schubs.

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