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La zone euro donne des signes de vie

NEW YORK – Les dernières données économiques de la zone euro suggèrent qu’une reprise pourrait être à portée de main. Quel en est le moteur ? Quels obstacles s’y opposent ? Et comment peut-elle être encouragée ?

Les causes immédiates de la reprise ne sont pas difficiles à discerner. L'an dernier, la zone euro était sur le point de succomber à une récession à double creux. Quand cette dernière est récemment tombée en déflation technique, la Banque centrale européenne a finalement appuyé sur la gâchette de l’assouplissement agressif et a lancé une combinaison de mesures d'assouplissement quantitatif (y compris des achats d’obligations souveraines) et de taux directeurs négatifs.

L'impact financier a été immédiat : en anticipation de l’assouplissement monétaire ainsi qu’après son démarrage, l'euro a chuté, les rendements obligataires dans le centre et la périphérie de la zone euro sont tombés à des niveaux très bas et les marchés boursiers ont commencé à enregistrer des performances robustes. Ceci, combiné avec la forte baisse des prix du pétrole, a stimulé la croissance économique.

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