欧元区的虚假复苏

发自伦敦——乍眼看来,欧元区经济似乎终于走上了复苏的轨道。股市不断高涨,消费者重拾信心。更低的油价,更便宜的欧元汇率,加上欧洲央行所实施的<>量化宽松手段都有望刺激增长。欧洲央行主席马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)宣称“一场持续的复苏已经确立。”而柏林和布鲁塞尔的政策制定者们纷纷拉来西班牙和爱尔兰的生命复苏迹象作样板,好证明自己那些严苛的财政巩固和结构改革方案都如早先宣称的那样奏效了。

但如果抵近认真观察的话,就会明显发现这类改善的程度其实相当一般,甚至可能是临时性的,也非德国鼓吹的政策所产生的结果。没错,按照某些估算数据,欧元区经济可能正以1.6%的年均增长率增长,高于2014年第四季度的0.9%,但这一增长率依然远低于美国和英国。再加上欧元区经济规模比七年前萎缩了2%的现状,“复苏”这个词似乎不太恰当——尤其是在这一状况很可能无法持续的情况下。

首先,由低油价产生的一次性增长已经开始走向末路。在去年六月至今年一月期间下跌了超过50%之后,欧元计算的原油价格已经反弹了近1/3,这在某种程度上是由于欧元迅速贬值,以至于要花更多的钱来进口。而这对家庭支出和企业成本所造成的影响当然是不值得庆祝的。

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