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欧元区稳定之岛

布鲁塞尔—最近,市场波动性飙升,显然,这与那些警告股票高企的人遥相呼应。但是,尽管美国股市经历了金融危机以来最糟糕的一星期之一,欧元区公共债务市场仍保持相对稳定,风险差——该指标通常会在市场波动中上扬——几乎保持不变,即使是欧元区外围国也安然无恙。

欧元区之所以看上去能够免疫于金融市场回旋,原因在于外围经济体基本面有了巨大改善:增长得到了提振,失业尽管仍然高企,但下降得很快。问题在于这些改善是否足以稳定到能够继续保持欧元区的韧性。

在这里,关键问题是目前的复苏过于依赖低利率:如果借贷成本上升,外围债务国就将蒙受损失。但认为外围经济体都是孱弱债务国已不再准确。事实上,除了希腊,所有外围国目前都存在经常项目盈余,这意味着它们并不需要依赖资本流入,反而在偿还外债。

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