El roce de Europa con la deuda

MÚNICH – El primer ministro francés, Manuel Valls, y su homólogo italiano, Matteo Renzi, han declarado – o al menos han insinuado – que no van a cumplir con el pacto fiscal europeo que todos los países miembros de la eurozona firmaron el año 2012; en cambio, tienen la intención de acumular nuevas deudas. La postura de estos dos ministros destaca una falla fundamental en la estructura de la Unión Monetaria Europea – una que los líderes europeos deben reconocer y abordar antes de que sea demasiado tarde.

El pacto fiscal – denominado formalmente el Tratado de Estabilidad, Coordinación y Gobernanza en la Unión Económica y Monetaria – fue el quid pro quo para que Alemania apruebe el Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad (MEDE), que fue esencialmente un paquete de rescate colectivo. El pacto establece un techo estricto para el déficit presupuestario estructural de un país y estipula que los coeficientes de deuda pública superiores al 60% del PIB deben reducirse anualmente por una vigésima parte de la diferencia entre el coeficiente actual y el coeficiente objetivo.

No obstante lo anterior, el coeficiente deuda/PIB de Francia se elevará al 96% hasta finales de este año, desde un 91% en 2012, mientras que el coeficiente de Italia alcanzará el 135%, en comparación al 127% en 2012. La renuncia efectiva al pacto fiscal por parte de Valls y Renzi sugiere que estos coeficientes se elevarán aún más en los próximos años.

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