Netherlands election voters John Thys/AFP/Getty Images

欧洲的戏剧性回归

伦敦—荷兰人以建造大坝闻名于世,这些大坝阻挡了横扫大西洋的大潮和大风。现在,荷兰人再次建成了一座大坝——阻挡民粹主义浪潮政治的大坝吗?自去年英国脱欧公投和特朗普当选美国总统以来,这股民粹主义浪潮便威胁着欧洲。

吉尔特·维尔德斯(Geert Wilders)的自由党(PVV)在5月15日的荷兰选举中令人意外地表现低迷,这似乎印证了这一点。尽管预测结果显示维尔德斯的支持率高达25%,但PVV最后只赢得13%的选票。如果在即将举行的法国总统选举中,选民再次表现出更加接近于荷兰而不是美国和英国的对仇外主义和保护主义的敏感性,他们的决定将影响到全球政治、经济和资本主义意识形态。

欧洲大陆若能回归中间派,将强烈地表明,民粹主义和反全球化运动在美国和英国所取得的出人意料的胜利主要不是因为失业和金融危机以来令人失望的经济表现、大量移民,或伊斯兰恐怖主义威胁。这一结论所依据的事实是,比起美国和英国,法国所承受的失业率要大得多,危机后衰退期要长得多,并且恐怖主义和伊斯兰斗争的问题也要严重得多。

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