Euro Finance ministers meeting Anadolu Agency

Uneinheitliche Signale aus der Eurozone

BRÜSSEL – Was hält die Zukunft der Eurozone bereit? Es kommt darauf an, wo man hinschaut. Einige Wirtschaftsindikatoren legen nahe, dass es für das Überleben der Gemeinschaftswährung inzwischen besser aussieht; so ist die Beschäftigung wieder auf ihrem Höchstwert der Zeit vor der Krise angekommen, und das BIP-Wachstum pro Kopf lag im letzten Jahr höher als in den USA. Zugleich scheinen sich die politischen Risiken trotz der Verbesserungen innerhalb der europäischen Wirtschaft zu vergrößern.

Die Hinweise auf eine wachsende Gefahr eines Auseinanderbrechens der Eurozone ergeben sich aus drei unterschiedlichen Indikatoren. Doch legt eine genauere Überprüfung dieser Indikatoren nahe, dass zwar weiter erhebliche längerfristige Risiken bestehen, die kurzfristigen Risiken jedoch recht gering sind.

Ein weithin verwendeter Indikator beruht auf Sentix-Umfragen von Marktteilnehmern, die eine starke Zunahme des Anteils derjenigen verzeichnen, die glauben, dass die Eurozone bald (im Verlauf der nächsten zwölf Monate) auseinanderbrechen wird. Und diesmal ist es nicht Griechenland, das dieses Ergebnis bedingt, sondern es sind Frankreich und Italien.

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