Politics

¿La UE puede sobrevivir al populismo?

Jan 4, 2017 Daniel Gros

BRUSELAS – Otro año, otra amenaza a la supervivencia de la Unión Europea. La buena noticia es que la mayor ruptura de 2016, el voto de Gran Bretaña para abandonar la UE, parece manejable. La mala noticia es que tanto Francia como Italia enfrentan la perspectiva de que los populistas lleguen al poder este año. Lo que suceda en cualquiera de estos países podría decretar el fin de la UE.

La UE recientemente se ha convertido en el blanco principal de los populistas. El fenómeno prosperó en primer lugar en Grecia, cuando el partido de izquierda Syriza llegó al poder en enero de 2015. Pero Syriza no pretendía retirar a Grecia de la UE; más bien, quería un mejor acuerdo con los acreedores del país, que habían impuesto medidas de austeridad devastadoras a los ciudadanos griegos.

La estrategia de Syriza en gran medida reflejaba la voluntad del pueblo. En un referendo de junio de 2015, los votantes rechazaron abrumadoramente un acuerdo propuesto por los acreedores de Grecia que habría significado una austeridad aún mayor. Sin embargo, la aceptación por parte del gobierno de un acuerdo esencialmente inalterado recibió un amplio apoyo pocos días después. Los votantes griegos entendieron que no valía la pena dejar de ser miembro de la eurozona a cambio de conseguir términos mejores.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 21 Comments on this article

Alex Finch Feb 5, 2017

Yes Mr Trump is right, globalisation has destroyed about 3 million jobs in the USA this century, however, at the same time globalisation has created 10's of millions of jobs in the developing world, and in the last 30 years has lifted 2 or 3 billion people out of abject poverty. This has been achieved through the efforts of all those politicians Mr Trump has now been discrediting. America First means just that to Mr Trump, the welfare of others is of no interest to him and has no value what so ever.
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Chris Parry-Davies Jan 23, 2017

I might diplomatically suggest looking up 'populism', 'elitism' and 'democracy' in the dictionary at which point it might become clearer that you've got the entire issue upside down. Populism is the consequence not the cause of the EU shortcomings; and the retreat into nationalism/identity the direct result of the deafness of the elites and establishments Mr Gros seems to think don't exist (despite the overwhelming evidence from across Europe and the world).
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Henk Crop Jan 9, 2017

Yesterday I read that since 2008 the economic growth in the EU has been 2.5 %. In the US that was 12 %. In a country like Italy the GDP is the same as in 2000.
In the mean time the EU keeps both the external as well a internal borders open. So unneeded immigrants keep entering and the criminals can continue to travel freely.
Thus treathening the way of life of the EU citizen.
In this complicated world you cannot win them all.
But now I read we cannot even expect very much.
Because we should judge the EU not by what they do, but by what they represent. That is being a bulwark with neccesary rules and procedures. And that in rapidly changing world. When the EU sees this as her role, she does not have to fear the populists, she will make herself redundant.
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john Fahy Jan 8, 2017

It appears we have another man of faith?
Declaring "The Emperors' cloths are excellent and beyond compare."
When those who realize he does not have any cloths and say so are promptly condemned as populists dreamers.
After all socialism with out a vote is not democracy.
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Christine Constable Jan 7, 2017

Daniel I can see you are so immersed in the EU you cannot conceptually grasp there could be any other alternative. Yo are clearly content with Europe passing into a post democratic age, where the unelected Commission set the game plan and the vastly unwieldy EU Parliament press buttons to approve what is laid before them - if that is not Orwellian in its ghastly reality I really don't know what is. Once upon a time the EU talked about subsidiarity - the ability for nation states to make their own decisions on matters that affected them, but no, subsidiarity was strangled somewhere in the morass of a power struggle between authoritarianism and democracy and guess what, democracy lost.
The EU is nothing more than a cash transfer system, where formerly wealthy countries are bled dry by the ever increasing number of poor; corrupt and dysfunctional nations. Apparently it is necessary that countries like the UK have low wages and push their workers to the limit, so they can generate sufficient cash to transfer to the EU so the EU can keep the other 20 odd countries who don't contribute anything significant in the style to which they have become accustomed. The EU has forgotten that cash comes from trade and generating wealth. You can only stifle trade for so long before the cash runs out. That is what we are seeing. France is washed up financially; Italy is on the brink; Greece has fallen over the cliff and many other EU economies are not in good shape. The UK too is in a bad way, but are still put upon and pressured to give money it doesn't have to people who (frankly) don't deserve it. Meanwhile back on Planet Brussels they are living in a nether world of fat expenses, luxury lifestyles and fabulous retirement pensions whilst presiding over chaos.

I fear Daniel you are deluding yourself if you think the UK's exit from the EU is "manageable" and it is quite sad as a former Brit you are content to betray your country in such a casual manner. The EU may imagine that it has the upper hand over the Brexit negotiations, but Europe is facing an existential threat based on the use of threats; bullying and fear. There is no love lost between the people and the EU, in fact for many years Eurobarometer has been tracking the lack of trust by the populace in the EU project, because it has always had a secretive agenda and has taken every opportunity to deny democratic accountability to itself. Changing Constitutions into Treaties; doing deals on the side all over the place and creating a hated Franco/German axis which bullies and pressurises countries into submission. It is a male driven concept, lacking the female approach of encouragement and persuasion. It's treatment of the UK who democratically voted to leave the EU will be most interesting to see, will the EU become a dying backwater of protectionism or will it have the guts and vision to re-think Europe into a more vibrant area for trade and give up its failing objective of creating a United States of Europe? No Empire has ever existed intact for very long, why doesn't the EU learn the lessons from history and re-draft Europe into what the UK joined all those years ago an EEC with nation states working in a friendly co-operative way with eachother. The EU elites don't have the skills or ability or confidence of the people to run 28 economies and let's face it none of us can agree on everything any way. A reformed EEC bringing in other countries like Russia and the Balkans would secure world peace, but the EU will be a threat to it. The solutions are so obvious, but for the ridiculous objectives of those power mad EU zealots we could be living in a charmed future with promise and opportunity for all, but no we are struggling to cut the ties of an incompetent, delusional, unelected authoritarian would be state that has no chance of success, especially now one of the big financiers is leaving the room.
- Andrew Wright Jan 8, 2017
  
  Well said Christine. Your post summarises much of what is wrong with the EU construct & exposes the entirely dismissive view of the EU bigots, for whom Daniel Gros is clearly a mouthpiece. He is, however, quite correct about some of the tactics of the ultra-populists, who will exploit anything to achieve absolute power, or as close to it as they can get. The problem which he refuses to see is that the EU has created the opportunities they are exploiting.
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M M Jan 6, 2017

No one can turn the clock back...the situation has become too complicated, too many vested interests for anyone to try to undo or resolve. The EU will survive, the question shall be " in what form?"
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Charles Villette Jan 5, 2017

The EU is not a bulwark of liberal democracy, that is incorrect. The EU is not a democratic institution. Impersonal checks and balances are one thing, austerity hammered into national constitutions in order to flatter a particular constituency in Northern Europe is quite another. The EU is, however, mostly a project of the centre-right "liberal-democratic" political movement, e.g. of centre-right liberalism.
The rise of right-wing populism across the EU countries is mainly the result of institutionalized austerity, which has contributed to crush centre-left liberalism, and the result of an acute uncontroled immigration wave in 2015 - concurrent with an intenfication of islamic terrorism.
Right-wing populism has also been permitted to thrive on the ambiguity of conservatism towards the EU project or indeed towards modernity at large.
But right-wing populism has long been well represented at the EU Parliament, as a consequence of its relative impotence (which it unfortunately reinforces), its poor composition and mode of election, and of low voter turnout.
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Jose araujo Jan 5, 2017

No it can't, and saying being Euro-critic is being populist, is the most demagogic populist thing you can say.
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Alex Leo Jan 5, 2017

1. Le pen is not coming to power, given the French two step elections. If the elections were US style, maybe, but not in real life.
2. Italy has never been anti EU, anti establishment, yes,
3. Continental Western Europe will stick together no matter who the leaders are, because of what the alternatives are - very strong Germany allying itself with Russia.
4. The likes of France and Italy will more likely become secondary fiddles in a reformed EU than the economic and political periphery as well as the dumping ground for faraway migrants unwelcome in Germany, Russia and Eastern Europe.
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jagjeet sinha Jan 5, 2017

THE HERITAGE OF THE PLANET
In championing the DNA of Europe - A bulwark of Liberal Democracy - the Author defends Light itself.
Independent Judiciary and Super-Majority Requirements - sound like the Perfect recipes for protecting Fundamental Rights.
The defense of EU is perhaps not the key - the defense of European Community is the key.
The EU is One Architecture - and there are obvious alternative options to Civilizational Community.
Protecting Europe's longest peace - is paramount - and the consequent prosperity.
Europe is a Civilization - that is the common heritage of 500 million.
Like China and India. Europe is Mankind's legacy.

Yes, Democracy is the best template for societal governance.
Super-Majority does protect - and along with Independent Judiciary, together they MUST.
Populism in the heat of the moment, can be destructive - twice in the last century is enough.
India despite its penury - goes back to its DNA in thwarting challenges.
China despite its relative backwardness - goes back to its DNA in overcoming challenges.
Without destroying its DNA, and without threatening The World.

In fact, The Planet - and its several Civilizational Community - needs to protect Mankind's heritage.
Through Institutional Architecture - that facilitates Peace and Prosperity on The Planet.
Time for Humanity to protect DNA that enlightens All.
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Giovanna Vinci Jan 4, 2017

Dear Sir, can multiculturalism mean than, in its name, one should tolerate habits incompatible with values such as equality of all people? The Islamic voile, for me, for instance, is absolutely intolerable, and each time I see a woman dressed with it (hair covered with it) I feel a sort of compulsive need to take it off. This is not a custom, this voile is a sign of submission, of inequality in a society where women right were hardly won and are always challenged in different ways. If strangers are welcomed without any obligations on their part to respect and to adhere to our values, than what?
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Walter Gingery Jan 4, 2017

Gros' dismissal of Brexit as "manageable" is most telling. . He is one with May's "Brexit means Brexit." Let's just get on with it. Let's not bother ourselves by contemplating the origins of the problem, or how it might be mitigated or remediated.

To him, apparently, the highest praise imaginable is the bureaucratic "Wir schaffen das!" Leave it all to us. Public consultation, not welcome.

The truth is that the EU lies in a very queer place, organizationally speaking: neither fish nor fowl, neither true confederation, nor free association. As such, like the old American government under the Articles of Confederation, it suffers from a deficiency of "response-ability" for EU-wide problems.

I fear that, unless this is remedied, the EU's days are numbered.
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Henk Crop Jan 4, 2017

This a provocatively stated question attacking these bad populists. The question should be can the EU survive in this shape ?
This in light of the troubles the EU interference has created : mass immigration, crime across the open borders, the Greek financial drain, conflict with Russia over Ukraine, collapse of Libya and the Brexit. The EU has become an immense bureacracy which is totally resistent to change. Out of touch with the citizen. Looking down upon the critical citizen as populists.
With the EU constitution it was meant to make Europe one state.
Implicitly all countries were, to an extend, dismanteled, without telling the citizen what the consequence would be.
If the EU is to survive it should be scaled down from a Union to a group of coordinating and sovereign states, ECU.
Subjects for debate are;
- stop on immigration
- curtail free exhange of people
- reexamine the money transfer
- reduce the number of EU commissioners (+ Staff)
- strengthen supervision by the Leaders of the member states
- reduce the flow of subsidies
- evaluate the added value of the European Parliament in relation to the National Parliaments
- Giovanna Vinci Jan 4, 2017
  
  Conflict with Russia over its (Russia's) theft of territory in total disregard of its own (Russia's) assumed obligations - when Ukraine gave up its atomic weapons, Russia "guaranteed" Ukraine territorial integrity.
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Karl Barber Jan 4, 2017

One of the key problems with the EU is that it is almost impossible or extremely costly to reverse erroneous decisions. A new national government comes to power with a political agenda reflecting current preferences of the electorate, yet it is bound in its activities by the rules imposed by the previous governments. There is a choice going forward, but not in reversing or amending past decisions. Continuing austerity in Greece, whether it is real or fictitious, is the prime example of the lack of flexibility (or democracy) in the EU.
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