European Union flag torn at edge

欧洲大门里的野蛮人

柏林—我正在欧洲作为期两周的旅行,眼下,我对欧洲的前景既不特别悲观,也不建设性地乐观。

首先是坏消息:在经历了本月早些时候骇人听闻的恐怖袭击后,巴黎显得十分低落,甚至可以说是抑郁。法国经济增长依然萎靡,失业者和许多穆斯林心怀怨念,马琳·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)的极右翼政党国民阵线有望在即将举行的地区选举中表现出色。布鲁塞尔因为恐怖袭击风险已经沦为半座死城,管制严格。但欧盟机构仍没有制定出统一的战略管理移民和难民的涌入,更不用说解决欧盟近邻的动荡和暴力了。

在欧元区之外,伦敦担心来自货币联盟的消极金融和经济溢出效应。移民危机和最近的恐怖袭击意味着关于是否保留欧盟成员资格的全民公决——有望在明年举行——可能导致英国退出欧盟。接下来,英国本身也有可能分裂,“英国退出”可能导致苏格兰人宣布独立。

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