Politics

Как Европа должна вести дела с Трампом

Feb 15, 2017 Wolfgang Ischinger

МЮНХЕН – Президентство Дональда Трампа является серьезным испытанием для Европы, для трансатлантических отношений и для мира в целом. Действительно, лозунг Трампа «Америка прежде всего» во многих отношениях представляет политику, противоположную интернационалистской американской внешней политике последних восьми десятилетий.

Для начала посмотрим на заявление Трампа о том, что он одинаково доверяет канцлеру Германии Ангеле Меркель и президенту России Владимиру Путину. Значит ли это, что Соединенные Штаты будут проводить равноудаленную политику в отношениях с ЕС и с Кремлем?

Это не праздный вопрос. Трамп ясно показал, что существующие деловые партнерства, союзы, правила и протоколы значат для него очень мало . В своих записях в социальных сетях он разражается тирадами против СМИ, нападает на независимых судей, обвиняет конкретных людей и компании, а также умаляет роль международных организаций.

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How Trump Would Weaken America
Mark Wallheiser/Stringer

Politics 21

How Trump Would Weaken America

Joseph S. Nye, Jr. says that the US should be strengthening, not questioning, its alliances.
Germany in the Age of Trump
Anadolu Agency

Politics 17

Germany in the Age of Trump

Joschka Fischer urges his country to leverage its economic strength to shore up European security.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 29 Comments on this article

Christine Constable Feb 24, 2017

THis is more of a hope than an expectation, recent examples of EU leadership have been poor, muddled and rejected by its members.
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Cary Fraser Feb 24, 2017

"...we Europeans should lay the foundations for a Europe that is strong, capable of taking action, and committed to Western values. From this position, we can assert our key interests vis-à-vis the US with confidence. That is the best response Europe can give. "
The foundations are there and the opportunities exist for the assertion of key European interests with confidence. The election of Trump is a reflection of the loss of self-confidence among American leaders and a significant sector of the electorate. This crisis of confidence has been decades in the making and Trump has unwittingly accelerated the process with his campaign rhetoric and the invocation of the bigotry and anti-intellectual currents in American life upon his assumption of office.
Europe has both diplomatic and economic leverage to forge alliances across the international system with other significant state actors and regional organizations to provide leadership on a wide range of issues which are European priorities.
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ASEM-UN ASEM-UN Feb 21, 2017

It takes not Machiavelli to understand that hegemonic powers do not like the rise of entities of the same size on the global stage, dealing with many Lilliputian countries is much more convenient as it has been for the good part of last century, however at least for what concerns western Europe that's a massive mistake, the western part of the EU has been a sui generis union since Roman Empire times, via the Holy Roman Empire all the way to the Battle of Lepanto the Congress of Vienna and Beyond, hence any threat to the European Modus operandi of a family (occasionally dysfunctional) but still a family will enhance European Cohesion......Wait and see
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Michael Parsons Feb 21, 2017

Europeans no longer believe in Europe i.e. the EU. It is in the process of being destroyed, and talk of this or that EU policy re:Trump is mere kite-flying. The relevant policy - faced by UK in the light of Brussels spite - is how to get out with a whole skin, rather thanm take the Greek politicians choice.
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Fadel Galal Feb 21, 2017

Excellent analysis. A parallel path needs to be applied here; engagement with Trump administration & non-Trump supporters as well as revitalizing EU capabilities (economic & security) and values. In terms of the double messaging coming out of the US administration (Trump vs Top Brass on charm campaign in Europe) it must be made clear as Donald Tusk put it-Deeds are more important that words. There also needs to be scrutiny of US backdoor initiatives to promote ultra-right parties which is a very real threat.
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Janos Nagy Feb 20, 2017

What do you mean Europe?
It is not a country and has no jurisdiction to dictate how countries operating with the Trump administration.
By the way the example of the right direction comes from Hungary by Orbán Viktor
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Andrew Cole Feb 19, 2017

Presumes that Europe and the EU are interchangeable terms and fails to question the legitimacy of Merkel deciding for it in the same way as a US president. Is dictation to the rest of Europe by Germany democracy and Western values? From the perspective of the UK the Franco-German supremacist alliance has openly declared economic and political hostility which will surely mean a breakdown in military alliance as well.
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manuel werner Feb 19, 2017

I'm hoping that you are just being kind in imputing rationality, even at the most minimal level, to trump and, I daresay, the collection of grasping opportunists advising, aiding and abetting him. The list of gluttonous, grasping humans validating the petulant narcissist, who I like to think of as Orange I, include the extraordinarily narrowly focused GOP caucus, with the very mean spirited Mitch McConnell at the top of this festering heap. The Senate Majority leader couldn't care less if America was sucked into a giant sinkhole, as long as the people of Kentucky can be fooled into thinking that he is fighting for their welfare and the reelect him.

Very thoughtful article.
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otto ruthenberg Feb 19, 2017

Hi time Europeans stick up for their own security. Nato is a piece of paper for times of peace. Gets coldly reassessed when a real crisis hits.
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Peter Schaeffer Feb 19, 2017

The "liberal global order" is a fraud. Infinite riches for the gated community set. Bataclan, Charlie Hebdo, banlieues, tournantes, Cologne, Molenbeek, Rosengård, etc. for everyone else. The people of Europe and the USA will not tolerate a system that destroys the middle-class and uses racial/sexual identity politics to protect the status quo.
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Peter Schaeffer Feb 19, 2017

What Ischinger calls "Europe" is really German oppression of the rest of Europe. Actually, is it just the corrupt alliance of identity politics left (Fisher) and the economic right (Schäuble) with Merkel combining both evils in one person.

When Germany declared that it would take an unlimited number of "refugees" (illegal economic migrants in real life), Germany violated several European agreements (notably the Dublin Regulation). Now Germany wants to impose its unilateral policy disaster on the rest of Europe. Not surprisingly the rest of Europe isn’t interested.

Germany under Merkel choose to attack the rest of Europe. Europe (and many Germans) are fighting back. No one in Europe should be subject to the EuroReich’s tyranny and oppression. Merkel’s vision of paradise is clearly a (German) jackboot stomping on the face humanity forever (while prattling on about “human rights”, Open Europe, “we can do it”, etc.)

What does the Ischinger/Soros/Merkel EuroReich offer to the people of Europe? Sadly, we know the answer all too well. It is Bataclan, Charlie Hebdo, banlieues, tournantes, Cologne, Molenbeek, Rosengård, etc. forever. If anyone does to challenge the EuroReich/EuroElite they can expect a “hate” crimes trial in short order. Sadly, the EUSSR and the USSR are becoming ever more alike.

Of course, the evil of the EUSSR doesn’t end with Cologne and Bataclan. The Euro has brought devastation to much of Europe with no hope of recovery (or debt relief) as long Herr Merkel is in charge. Yet another (German) jackboot stomping on the face humanity forever.

There is a useful quote from Mikhail Gorbachev on this point.

“The most puzzling development in politics during the last decade is the apparent determination of Western European leaders to re-create the Soviet Union in Western Europe.”

The USSR was evil. The EUSSR is little better. Time for a change. Brexit will help to bring down the Euroreich.

Germany has tried to dominate and oppress the people of Europe many times before. The EUSSR is just the latest scheme for German rule. Russia has fought several times against German domination of Europe. Apparently, some things don't change.
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Odyssios Redux Feb 19, 2017

I agree with a lot of what you'd like to have happen, but I think you're still unclear as to who you're dealing with. Not with a person who practices 'rationality as we know it.' Not with a person who listens to anyone, and I mean anyone, who says anything Trump hasn't already said. He's utterly intolerant of dissent, as he's already proven. I'm not being snide about this, but deadly serious. It's crucial to recognize, in dealing with him. If ignorance were the worst aspect you were dealing with, there are plenty who could competently, and kindly, guide Trump. He is of course a mass of contradictions, and also (if he allows himself to see this) utterly out of his depth. As to 'The Art of the Deal', on which he so greatly prides himself, - consider that (in effect) Trump changed his stance from a two-China to a one China stance, in return for a long-sought branding concession in China. If that was indeed the trade, it was monstrously unequal. China got the imprimatur of 'the last superpower' (soi-disant) as the unique 'China'; the rump of Taiwan being relegated to its status as a not-yet- returned prodigal son. This was a prize of great value, gained at zero advantage to the US. Zero. Trump got what he wanted, personally, and it seems not to have occurred to him that he was failing abjectly to use the US position to US advantage. Only if he follows Louis xiv in saying, 'L'etat, c'est moi', can this be justified.

It's possible that the best approach would be 'treat kindly, stay focused, and assume you're otherwise on your own.' Because you are.

Between the US Constitution, US voters, and the fate of us all, he will vanish sometime. I promise! Think of a mariner battening down the hatches to ride out a storm. Because that's the situation. Nor is the mariner certain to stay afloat.
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Hazel Henderson Feb 19, 2017

As one of the almost 3 million US voters who did not vote for Trump, I agree with this article. thank you !
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Vincent chandran Feb 19, 2017

Europe should stop using crutches (USA dependence) and organize itself. Otherwise it will be on crutches. No need to seek US help, stand on your own.
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Vincent chandran Feb 19, 2017

Europe should stop using crutches (USA dependence) and organize itself. Otherwise it will be on crutches. No need to seek US help, stand on your own.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Vincent chandran Feb 19, 2017

I think Trump is a blessing to Europe to stop using crutches and get their act together. Since World War II, Europe has been depending on the USA. It is about time it stood on its own feet. If Europe does not get rid of its crutches, it will be on a wheel chair. Europe should stop this USA dependence and organize itself. The US will come to its senses that its not exceptional, and that wars are coming to its borders as we have been witnessing.
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jagjeet sinha Feb 18, 2017

ROME AND CONSTANTINOPLE
Europe would like to do sooner than later - writing off America as a European partner.
Europe would like to do sooner than later - writing off Britain as a European partner.

Every Rome would like to do sooner than later - writing off Constantinople as its partner.
Every Rome would like to do sooner than later - writing off New Rome as its partner.

Every Greece would like to do sooner than later - writing off Rome as its partner.
Every Greece would like to do sooner than later - writing off New Greece as its partner.

Greece and Russia.
Rome and Germany.
London and America.

The only Infinity is The Trinity.
THE-CITY-ON-THE-HILL always The eternal abode of Light.
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j. von Hettlingen Feb 17, 2017

Wolfgang Ischinger is right about not "writting off the US as a European partner," despite Trump being an "unattractive" leader. This transatlantic relationship is eight-decades old and should survive his presidency. The US has a strong civil society and an independenct judiciary. Besides more than half of America's constituents didn't vote for him, and there are people from all walks of life, who "remain committed to preserving the transatlantic" ties, not least "members of the new administration......to say nothing of Trump’s opponents - Democrats and Republicans alike - in Congress."
The author dismisses the belief "that there are partners all over the world just lining up to defend the liberal global order together with Europe." We might agree with China that protectionism would hurt the global economy. Apart from defending globalisation, the author sees "little common ground" for a steadfast relationship, saying "the liberal global order will endure only if supported by both pillars of the transatlantic partnership."
According to the author, "calls for Europe to become a strategic counterweight to the US are purely aspirational," because there is no way - "in the short and medium term" - that Europe can do without America's security umbrella. In a debate, the scenario of Germany going nuclear, following a possible "decoupling" of Europe from the US, reflected the uncertainty. But such an idea doesn't seem popular among Germans.
While "we must work to convince the new administration of the importance of a united and peaceful Europe" we also have to tell Trump decisively to stop his anti-EU rants and pursue policies that might dismantle the EU. He personally rejoiced at Brexit and his chief strategist, Steve Bannon is said to help his former ultra-right media outlet, Breitbart expand to France. Bannon and some in Trump's team had expressed their willingness to support Marine Le Pen in her bid for the French presidential election. She was seen in the Trump Tower in New York a month ago.
Trump needs to be told "with utmost clarity, that the breach of vital European interests would bring about a major transatlantic crisis." Moreover it is "equally important to ensure that any deal between Russia and the US does not come at Europe’s expense." The EU had invested much political capital in forging the nuclear deal with Iran and would not agree with "any new sanctions if the US withdraws from the deal unilaterally." We, Europeans would be prepared for tit-for-tat measures should Trump indulge in a trade war. "Europe remains America’s most important market" and in a world of economic interdependence, protectionism wouldn't bring mutual benefits. Trump will not lift sanctions against Russia, because it makes him politically vulnerable. Indeed, he should soften his anti-EU stance, before he gets hurt by anti-Trump sentiments in Europe.
In order to beef up security and save the EU from disintegration, EU member states need to meet the NATO goal of spending 2% of their gross domestic product on defence, as well as to adopt Federica Mogherini's European security strategy. Indeed, "the EU’s cohesion and its internal and external security cannot be achieved at zero cost." The author is urging Germany to grin and bear deficit spending, for the sake of "future generations." Otherwise we would see the "main foundation" of a "peaceful and prosperous Europe" eroding.
In theory the author is right. It remains to be seen whether all the 27 member states can get their act together. Much depends on the outcomes of elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands. No doubt the defeat of populist parties will constitute a backlash against Trumpism and its destructive policies.
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P. Kamath Feb 17, 2017

Trump claimed and boasted that his administration is running like a "fine tuned machine". He also claims he has inherited a mess from Obama administration too! Such a delusion! His policies have started initiating of long lasting damage in domestic and foreign affairs. So very sad indeed!
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олег вася Feb 17, 2017

Sometimes I want to cry when you look what the world has slipped. The Europki and whining like beaten dogs have procedure starts to get bored.
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Curtis Carpenter Feb 16, 2017

I find the tone and content of this article deeply misguided in that it fails to deal adequately with the dangers presented by Donald Trump and his ever-so-slowly emerging administration. Even the title belies a naive belief that it is possible to "deal" with Trump, who changes positions faster than most of us can blink. And I know that an increasing number of Americans -- even Republicans -- find Mr. Trump unacceptably offensive.
- Ron Richins Feb 21, 2017
  
  You are absolutely correct, and I apologize that so many of my fellow Americans were so easily conned.
  
  Please bear with us while we correct our error. Give us until the end of June. For some solace (while we right the ship), enjoy our Late Night comedy shows.
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Christine Constable Feb 16, 2017

I find the tone and content of this article deeply offensive and even the title "How Europe Should Deal with Trump" belies a barely disguised contempt for Mr Trump by the author -and a former diplomat to the USA I am pretty shocked such words should be spoken and I know many of my Republican friends will find the contempt for Trump to be unacceptably offensive.
Germany certainly seems to be asserting itself after some long years licking its wounds following the second world war and the catastrophe that Germany brought to Europe in the last Century. The USA (as the UK) have expended enough blood in defence of Europe and Germany should be mindful in remembering the havoc their country has caused in Europe in pursuit of their endless objectives to dominate the European theatre. Germany has done this without proper responsibility, its persistent development of a Franco/German Axis which has bypassed many of the leaders of other members of the EU (because the others are less important and influential one assumes) has in itself caused a huge de-stabilisation in Europe and German arrogance in holding Eurozone countries hostage to the Euro as a method of keeping members in "check" is an effective if alienating method of control which creates its own instability, especially when countries like Italy and Greece can just see the benefits flowing one way towards Germany and away from everyone else.
The arrogant dismissal of the USA and the insulting of their elected leader would be regarded as a huge political insult if it was re-framed to read "How the USA should deal with Merkel" ...doesn't sound so friendly does it? The USA has subsidised; supported and acted as a security and political bulwark to Europe at its own expense and at the expense of its young men and women who came to defend Europe from despots in Europe - two of which came from Germany itself. Given the painful and shameful behaviour of Germany, could I just ask the former Ambassador to have a degree of humility before insulting the person the people of the USA elected. Whether or not the author likes him, whether or not he shares his politics is frankly irrelevant. The people of the USA have made their decision and Europe has an obligation to engage with the elected representative in the same way any of us should engage with the leader of the free world.
Germany has been consistently acting in its own interests since the formation of the EU; in helping to create the undervalued Euro; in ensuring Berlin will shortly become the centre for approving Euro based national budgets; ensuring Germany exports more than it imports and protects its own internal markets from competition; ensuring that Germany obtains labour from Turkey and Syria through mass migration (without consultation with the rest of Europe) in admitting a million unchecked "asylum seekers" which could very well undermine the security of Europe as a whole.
Germany has failed to contribute 2% to NATO funding despite agreeing to do this in return for USA support and seeking USA support for the failing Euro whilst (in the same breath) insulting the US President.
I think Germany is in a very dangerous position, having created the EU in its image, it may well find the whole structure too unstable and dysfunctional to last long term, alienating countries like the US and the UK and other countries like Greece and Italy (and perhaps others who stay silent and are just watching) will see Germany (yet again) come crashing back to reality. The lack of support Mrs Merkel gave to David Cameron and her lack of faith in providing Cameron with firm commitments allowed not only Cameron to fail but for Europe at large to see that Germany is only interested in itself and all this hot air about the European Family is just a fantasy few of us believe to be true. It is sad to see us moving backwards largely because countries like Germany are hogging the benefits, the UK has been thwarted in expanding her financial services in both Germany and France and the export deficits are embarrassing and now we see Mrs Merkel using threats to try and assert Germany's interests by pretending that these are also the interests of the EU. There is no surprise that the UK after 40 years of trying now realises the EU is a stitch up by France and Germany and the rudeness with which Mr Ischinger refers to the USA is impertinent to say the least - Germany is in no position to lecture the rest of the world about the rights and wrongs of "America First" and to even suggest that the USA is an attractive ally to Europe is a laughable insult - where are Europe's friends as they slam the door on the UK and the USA...China and Russia ?
- Christine Constable Feb 24, 2017
  
  Perhaps Germany investing in the marl
  Jets it seeks to exploit us the answer. BUilding factories and creating jobsacross the world and spreading the benefits of trade, in this respect Germany can manufacture more cheaply in developing markets.
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- Charles LeMaire Feb 19, 2017
  
  Christine,
  You make some logical arguments. What recommendations would you make to Donald Trump to increase an economic growth model ( deal ) that would benefit both Germany and the United States. I can testify that the German made products that I own are second to none and I would be very upset that those products become too expensive for me to own due to an import tax !
  Best Regards
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Shivin Agarwal Feb 15, 2017

While communicating utmost clarity would certainly have been an effective strategy during the Obama administration, European administrators must be cautious of what they reveal to members of the Trump administration. Trump has made it clear that he is looking for deals, and he has a knack of getting them. Europe would be ill-advised to make clear-cut policies for or against Trump, given their dependence on U.S. security. Instead they should play their cards close to the chest and defy Trump on an ad-hoc basis. It appears clear that Trump will say anything to unsettle the dust, but politicians globally would be shrewd to understand the U.S. assets they most seek to protect and build self-sufficiency for assets deemed to be non-critical.
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Armin Schmidt Feb 15, 2017

"Strengthen thyself" seems to come with a procedural risk. If others are hurt in the process, which can occur even via a mere feeling of faint insecurity or a faint threat, this can instil in others the wish to strengthen, (or as I term, subgroup-liberate) as well. Which, done mutually ignorant and damaging, can lead to downward spirals.
One might apply a rule-of-thumb:
"Responsible subgroup liberation requires fairness and mutual compensation."

There is more reasoning, including a positive outlook on future decades, for a time when best-for-all becomes en-vogue again, to be found in my account.
Thanks
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