Euro bills.

Головоломка Мински для еврозоны

БРЮССЕЛЬ – Затянувшийся период низкой инфляции тревожит Европейский центральный банк. Но его реакция – по сути, просто расширение программы количественного смягчения – может привести к негативным последствиям, усугубляя дисбалансы и создавая серьёзную финансовую нестабильность.

На сегодня индекс потребительских цен в еврозоне колеблется около нуля, и даже базовая инфляция держится на уровне ниже 1%, что очень далеко от установленной ЕЦБ цели – около 2%. Хотя новый виток ослабления мировых цен на сырьё в этом году способствовал данным результатам, он не объясняет причин низких долгосрочных инфляционных ожиданий: они почти не изменились с марта, когда ЕЦБ запустил масштабную программу выкупа облигаций в размере 60 млрд евро ($66,3 млрд) ежемесячно.

Однако вместо того, чтобы переосмыслить свою стратегию, ЕЦБ рассматривает возможность усиления прежних мер – увеличить объёмы выкупа облигаций и снизить учётную ставку, которая уйдёт ещё дальше в минус. Это стало бы серьёзной ошибкой.

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