Euro bills.

Il Dilemma di Minsky nella Zona Euro

BRUXELLES – L’inflazione persistentemente bassa ha messo in allarme la Banca Centrale Europea. Ma la sua risposta – essenzialmente solo maggiori quote di quantitative easing – potrebbe ritorcersi contro, aggravando gli squilibri e generando grave instabilità finanziaria.

Allo stato attuale, l’indice generale dei prezzi al consumo della zona euro si aggira intorno allo zero, ed anche l’inflazione di fondo rimane al di sotto dell’1% – troppo lontano per la tranquillità derivante dal target della BCE, di circa il 2%. Mentre, all’inizio di quest’anno, un nuovo ciclo di indebolimento dei prezzi delle materie prime a livello mondiale ha contribuito a questi dati, ciò non spiega la debolezza nelle aspettative di inflazione a più lungo termine, che hanno visto un miglioramento modesto da marzo, quando la BCE ha iniziato il suo massiccio programma di acquisto di obbligazioni da 60 miliardi di euro (66,3 miliardi di dollari) al mese.

Ma invece di ripensare la sua strategia, la BCE sta considerando di raddoppiare la posta: con l’acquisto di quote ancora maggiori di prestiti obbligazionari e la riduzione ulteriore del suo tasso di interesse di riferimento su livelli negativi. Ciò costituirebbe un grave errore.

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