Euro bills.

Das Minsky-Paradoxon der Eurozone

BRÜSSEL – Die hartnäckig niedrige Inflation bereitet der Europäischen Zentralbank Kopfzerbrechen. Doch deren Antwort auf diese Entwicklung – nämlich im Wesentlichen noch mehr quantitative Lockerung – könnte ins Auge gehen und Ungleichgewichte verschärfen sowie zu ernsthafter finanzieller Instabilität führen.

Derzeit bewegt sich der Gesamtverbraucherpreisindex in der Eurozone rund um null und selbst die Kerninflation bleibt unter 1 Prozent – beunruhigend weit entfernt vom EZB-Inflationsziel von 2 Prozent. Obwohl eine weitere Schwächephase bei den Rohstoffpreisen im Laufe dieses Jahres zu diesen Werten beitrug, erklärt dies nicht die Schwäche der langfristigen Inflationserwartungen, die sich seit März nur wenig aufhellten, als die EZB ihr massives Anleihekaufprogramm im Ausmaß von 60 Milliarden Euro pro Monat startete.

Anstatt jedoch ihre Strategie zu überdenken, erwägt die EZB noch eins draufzusetzen: nämlich noch mehr Anleihen zu kaufen und ihren Leitzins noch weiter in den negativen Bereich zu senken. Das wäre ein schwerer Fehler.

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