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L’Europe sur la touche

MUNICH – L’ordre international libéral, qui contribue à la stabilisation du monde depuis la fin de la guerre froide, est aujourd’hui mis à rude épreuve. Esprit de revanche de la part de la Russie, chaos au Moyen-Orient, et bouillonnement des tensions en mer de Chine méridionale sont autant de symptômes d’un début de craquelure du système.

Nombreux sont les moteurs d’instabilité, parmi lesquels une réorientation de la puissance économique depuis l’Occident vers l’Orient, un affaiblissement des institutions officielles, ainsi qu’un désamour généralisé de l’opinion à l’égard de ses dirigeants au sein des démocraties occidentales. Deux évolutions clés viennent néanmoins particulièrement éroder l’ordre international libéral : retrait de l’Amérique à l’écart du leadership mondial, et persistance de la crise en Europe.

Plusieurs signaux récents semblent indiquer de la part de l’Amérique une volonté de s’affirmer à nouveau. Après six années de ce que l’on a appelé le « leadership depuis l’arrière », ainsi que de lignes rouges tracées sans aucun effet, le président américain Barack Obama commence à viser un certain nombre d’ententes innovantes et flexibles – qu’il s’agisse d’arrangements diplomatiques ou militaires – afin de répondre aux menaces globales.

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